01 / THE REST OF TODAY—
--%
Listening for clues.
Chance of an extra Codex reset event or banked reset grant before midnight.
Original post ↗FOR THE TEMPORARILY TOKENLESS
WHEN TO
RESET?
Your tokens are gone. Your hope isn't.
02 / TOMORROW—
--%
A new day.
A fresh dose of maybe.
∞ Experimental estimate. Not a promise, not an OpenAI product.
—LESS DOOMSCROLLING. MORE RECEIPTS.
The signal desk.
On-site posts cover Tibo, @OpenAI and @OpenAIDevs. The X link searches beyond those accounts; X may require sign-in.
Checking tracked posts and OpenAI Status…
OPEN THE BLACK BOXOkay, where do the numbers come from?
An inspectable rule-based experiment, not a trained predictor. We start with an assumed 12% daily baseline, then consider the strongest signal in each category.
+2.90Explicit reset promise
+0.45Relevant fixes
+0.30Reset hint
−1.60Cancellation / denial
A first-party commitment to reset all paid Codex users stays active for up to 36 hours; its 85% near-term floor is an editorial choice, not measured accuracy. Repeated posts do not stack. A later cancellation or completed reset retires that commitment.
P(reset) = 1 − exp(−∫ hourly_rate(t) dt)Banked reset rule: a first-party announcement that cards are being loaded or granted counts as an observed reset event today. A future plan adds +2.20 to the hourly model and decays in 12 hours; it never confirms delivery. 100% confirms the public announcement, not delivery to your account.
Today means the remaining time before midnight in your selected timezone. Predictions are capped at 95%; 100% requires a first-party completion report or banked reset grant. Community posts appear as context but cannot confirm a reset or boost the forecast. This site cannot check your account.
We track extra Codex reset events, including banked reset grants and automatic shared resets. A banked reset is saved for later use and does not immediately refill your quota. Scheduled personal refills are separate. This page cannot see your account or reset your limits.
OpenAI banked-reset guide ↗ · Read the model source ↗